China e-commerce market to hit $3.6t by 2028

It will be fueled by a shift in consumer preference to online shopping.

China’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at a 9.9% annual rate between 2024 and 2028, reaching $3.6t (CNY 25.4t), according to GlobalData. 

In 2023, the market grew 11.9% to $2.2t (CNY 15.4t), driven by increasing internet penetration and major online shopping events.

“China boasts the largest e-commerce market globally,” said Ravi Sharma, lead banking and payments analyst at GlobalData. “This is attributed to its massive population, increasing internet penetration (especially in rural areas), and advanced digital infrastructure.

“Online shopping events such as Singles’ Day, 618 E-Commerce Festival, and Shuangpin Online Shopping Festival have also contributed to ecommerce growth,” he added.

Additionally, urban internet penetration reached 83.3% by late 2023, whilst rural areas hit 66.6%, according to the China Internet Network Information Center.

Government support has also boosted growth, with plans to enhance logistics, establish cross-border e-commerce zones, and expand access to remote areas under the 14th five-year plan.

Alternative payment methods dominate the market, accounting for 65.9% of transactions in 2023. Alipay and WeChat Pay lead, supported by their simplicity and wide acceptance.

Moreover, credit cards, preferred for benefits like cashback and installment options, made up 14.9% of transaction value.