Festive season and fiscal boost drive Indonesia’s consumer sector in early 2026

Seasonal demand and easing costs support near-term earnings.

Indonesia’s consumer sector is entering a firmer near-term phase into the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), supported by festive demand, easing input costs and fiscal support, whilst currency and cost pressures remain medium-term risks, according to UOB Kay Hian.

The brokerage maintained an overweight call, citing seasonal consumption linked to Chinese New Year on 18 February 2026 and Lebaran on 20 March 2026, with fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 earnings expected to improve quarter on quarter and full-year performance broadly in line.

Cost pressures have moderated, with cocoa prices down 47% since January 2025, sugar down 18% and wheat down 12%, whilst purchasing power began recovering in Q4 2025 and is expected to extend into Q1 2026.

Fiscal support remains a near-term buffer, with four stimulus packages disbursed in 2025 totalling $6.53b (Rp110.7t), including $1.86b (Rp31.5t) of cash transfers in the fourth quarter, alongside the absence of a cigarette excise hike and the postponement of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax.

UOB Kay Hian flagged medium-term risks including weaker-than-expected purchasing power, rupiah depreciation and renewed raw material price volatility, which could weigh on margins and earnings visibility beyond the seasonal uplift.

(US$1 = RP16,831.00)