Coffee supply under strain as climate change disrupts global production

Coffee prices have surged due to weather-related supply disruptions.

Climate change is increasingly disrupting global coffee production, with rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and extreme weather events reshaping where coffee can be grown and how reliably it can be supplied, according to GlobalData.

The industry is facing a more fragile supply chain, with volatile harvests, inconsistent bean quality, and rising costs affecting farmers, manufacturers, and consumers.

Arabica coffee, which accounts for more than half of global production, is especially vulnerable. It grows best in cooler conditions of 15°C–24°C, typically at higher altitudes.

Rising global temperatures are increasing heat stress on coffee trees, reducing flowering, lowering yields, and affecting bean development. Climate research from Climate Central shows major coffee-producing countries are now experiencing an average of 57 additional heat-stress days per year, with El Salvador among the hardest hit.

Long-term projections suggest the situation may worsen. Banking and agriculture analysts at Rabobank estimate that around 20% of current arabica-growing regions could become unsuitable by 2050.

The report said this could concentrate production in fewer viable regions, increasing the risk of global supply shocks when extreme weather affects key growing areas.

Katamaneni Greeshma Kasturi, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, said that shrinking suitable coffee-growing zones and production becoming concentrated in fewer regions increases the likelihood of supply shocks, which can intensify price volatility and availability issues.

“Quality is also at risk. Higher temperatures can accelerate ripening, giving beans less time to develop sugars and aromatic complexity,” she said. “Excess rain during harvest increases the likelihood of fermentation defects and mold, whilst sudden changes in humidity complicate drying and storage, raising defect rates and quality variation.”

Overall, she noted that climate change is affecting not only total coffee production, but also the consistency, predictability, and overall quality of coffee across the supply chain.

The impact is already visible in global markets. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported a nearly 40% surge in coffee prices in 2024, driven largely by weather-related supply disruptions.

When harvests fall short, exporters often restrict sales, making it harder for manufacturers to meet contracts. Brands are increasingly forced to source alternative origins or substitute different bean grades, sometimes shifting toward more heat-resilient robusta coffee, which can alter flavor profiles.

Producers and industry groups are responding with adaptation strategies, including shade-grown farming, agroforestry systems, and the development of more resilient coffee varieties that can better withstand heat, drought, and pests.

“Yet these solutions take time to scale, and smallholder farmers—who produce much of the world’s coffee—often lack access to finance, technology, and training, making targeted support essential,” stressed Kasturi.

Manufacturers are being urged to diversify sourcing, strengthen long-term supplier relationships, invest in traceability and climate-risk monitoring, and treat supply volatility as a normal operating condition rather than an exception. Industry stability will depend on how quickly companies adapt to protect quality and reduce disruption.

Kasturi said climate change is reducing suitable coffee-growing areas, increasing yield volatility, and weakening quality consistency, especially for arabica. These pressures are raising costs, limiting supply, and reducing consumer choice.

“Although adaptation strategies exist and are already being tested, the pace and scale of investment—particularly for smallholder farmers—will determine whether the industry can maintain a reliable supply and preserve the quality profiles that consumers and manufacturers depend on,” she said.