Asia shoppers tighten wallets even as $7t growth looms

Groceries and essential goods now anchor consumer baskets across the region.

Asia’s retail expansion is set to accelerate, with private consumption projected to grow by nearly 40% or equivalent to about $7t, over the next decade, a Roland Berger report, despite shoppers narrowing down spending to essentials and scrutinising value more closely.

Groceries and essential goods now anchor consumer baskets across the region, whilst discretionary categories are contracting in most markets.

Only China stands out, where younger consumers continue to channel spending into clothing and leisure.

Meanwhile, Indonesia and Thailand show widespread intent to cut spending, whilst growth markets such as India and the Philippines are seeing softer expansion plans compared with 2024.

Moreover, retail purchasing behaviour is consolidating around three factors: quality, price and convenience. But the weight of each is diverging sharply by market maturity.

In developed markets such as Singapore and Japan, price sensitivity is intensifying—even in premium segments—as consumers shift toward efficiency and cost control.

By contrast, in developing markets including Vietnam and Hong Kong, quality is overtaking price as the primary decision driver, with more than 70% of consumers in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand prioritising product reliability and brand trust.

Outside essentials, luxury is the exception—but growth is becoming more concentrated. Spending is rebounding in apparel, jewellery and beauty, led by emerging markets.

In India and the Philippines, existing luxury consumers still plan to increase spending, whilst developed markets are showing clear fatigue.

More than 70% of consumers in Japan and over 50% in South Korea and Hong Kong say they are unlikely to start buying luxury, limiting new customer pipelines.

Retailers are also facing a shift in what value means. Across Asia, consumers are increasingly anchoring decisions on quality and brand trust, while deprioritising sustainability.

In several markets—including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia—the importance of sustainability has dropped by around 10 percentage points since 2024, as consumers prioritise reliability and cost amidst economic pressure.