Subdued spending, no stimulus drag Thai retail into slow Q1

Recovery is expected in Q2 as weather normalises and stimulus may arrive.

Thailand’s retail sector is set for a weak start to 2026, weighed down by low consumer demand, the absence of stimulus measure, and a high year-ago sales base from the “Easy E-Receipt 2.0” tax scheme, according to Maybank.

The brokerage said same-store sales growth (SSSG) is likely to stay weak in the first quarter of 2026, before improving in the second quarter as comparisons ease, weather conditions normalise following La Niña, and the formation of a new government potentially allows for fiscal stimulus measures to boost purchasing power.

Maybank forecasts fourth-quarter 2025 core earnings for retailers under its coverage to reach $550.18m (THB17.35b), up 34% quarter on quarter due to seasonal factors but down 8% year on year due to weaker SSSG and higher selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses.

Only Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited and MR. D.I.Y. Holding (Thailand) Public Company Limited are expected to post year-on-year earnings growth of 18% and 21%, respectively, whilst CP ALL Public Company Limited's earnings are likely to remain flat.

Other retailers are expected to report declines amidst subdued consumption, southern flooding, border tensions with Cambodia, and the national mourning period.

Maybank noted that factors such as heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, cooler temperatures during 2Q25, and regional tensions have historically affected retail performance, suggesting that 1Q26 could continue to face similar pressures until external conditions stabilise.